Typically, authoritarianism asserts its legitimacy by two means. First, it asks for a tradeoff between economic development and autocratic politics. It portrays democracy as a slow process and a reason for political instability. A few such authoritarian countries have indeed achieved impressive success in economic development. Singapore and China are oft-referred examples of this kind of authoritarianism.
The second way that authoritarianism asserts its legitimacy is with the help of negative nationalism and state violence. Such authoritarian rulers force people to change their thinking under relentless propaganda. States shape the imagination of a nation in such a way that the ruler and the country appear two sides of a single coin. Rulers usually justify the use of violence against their own subjects on this plotted ground. They can even wage a war with a neighbor if it helps them remain in power. North Korea and Russia are typical examples of this kind of authoritarianism.
Bangladesh is also an authoritarian country. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is a strong leader. It has been wanting an effective opposition for a long time. Under her leadership, the abuse of state violence has been blatant. Broad daylight murders of dissents are condoned. Hundreds of such killings and disappearances have gotten no court hearings. Institutions like the police, judiciary, human rights commission, and media hardly have any autonomy due to political interference. Let's not talk about elections! These hardly have any credibility.
However, despite all of this a stint of economic growth and a few mega projects had helped Hasina to keep her legitimacy without solely depending on violence. Moreover, an achievement in poverty alleviation remained the bedrock of her reputation. On top of that the legacy of Bangladesh's 'father of nation', Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, has been an ever-running source of legitimacy for her. Rahman, the first elected Prime Minister, was assassinated with his family in 1975, just after four years of the Liberation War. His daughters, Hasina and Rehana, survived that massacre, which was followed by a military takeover.
Ms. Hasina came to power for the second time in 2009. Since then she has built her political image on the three pillars; economic development, political stability and Rahman's legacy (nationalism). However, all of a sudden, after fifteen years, these pillars have begun to appear shaky. Legitimacy is evaporating as it never has before. The economy is unravelling, stability has come under serious question and the overuse of Rahman's legacy for the benefit of ruling party, Awami League, has dampened its effects.
Inflation's gone up by double digits. At the same time, lack of the quality jobs and rising unemployment have burdened the common lives. External debt has reached all-time high. It increased by more than twelve percent in a year from 2022 to 2023. Foreign currency reserves have also dwindled. It barely afford to import half a year for a population of more than 170 million.
Hasina brought infrastructure at the center of her development plan. She has presided over half a dozen multibillion projects in the last decade. Padma Multipurpose Bridge and Dhaka Metro are two major among them. Apart from the Bridge, big capital for those investments came from external loans. Now, the problem is that neither most of the projects are likely to generate sufficient revenue to pay loans off nor they have created stable jobs for unemployed youths. It benefited only a small class of contractors and politicians, known as dalal capitalists.
Another pillar of her legitimacy, political stability, has also faced a serious crisis. Bangladesh's already seen two major unrests this year. Understandably, when the prospect of democratic reforms looks dismal, peaceful transfer of power tough and there is no democratic way available for the people to express themselves then there will be more unrests in the coming days.
The ongoing Quota Movement has sent a clear message to Hasina that maintaining stability is no easier anymore. Everybody knows that Quota Movement is not merely against thirty percent reservation for Liberation War veteran's offspring in government jobs but a tipping point after wider dissatisfaction accumulated many years. Even after the Supreme Court scrapped the quota scheme, protesters are not ready to call off demonstrations and strikes. They don't trust the government. They think that the government could forge new veteran certificates to distribute among its loyal voters.
The Quota Movement sent another clear message that the failing economy can peril political stability. Millions of youths were already dissatisfied with the elections as they had not provided any fair and free chance to express their views. Now, most of them are unemployed. After all, the government came up with a plan, the quota system, to rig the system in its favor. This made students and the public enraged at Hasina's regime.
This is a matter of different discussion if nationalism has been globally becoming irrelevant or not. However, as a political tool, it has indeed gradually worn out in the hands of Sheikh Hasina. For instance, when a journalist asked her about the disproportionate quota reservations for veteran's families, she replied in her style. She had reversed that question and made it fallacious. She said that if not to the veteran's family, should it be given to razakars' (collaborators)?' (Collaborators were the people who supported Pakastani rule during the liberation war).
Such justifications, backed by nationalist overstatements, have always been helpful for her. But, it did not go well this time. Students defied her statement, vigorously. They chanted slogans like 'ke razakar, ke razakar? Tui razakar, Tui razakar !!' or 'who is collaborator, who is collaborator? You are collaborator, you are collaborator!!' That was indeed not only a rejection of Hasina's argument given to defend the quota scheme but also the defiance against her claim that she is a nationalist leader and works for the nation.
Hasina has exploited her father's legacy to an extent that now it can hardly add any new value to her dwindling popularity. For instance, a visitor without any political and historical knowledge about the country, right from the airport, can see a national icon. The use of this icon could be a textbook example of the immoderate use of any symbol. It looks far less iconographic than it looks an act of outdoor advertising. This icon is of nobody but the father of the nation, Rahman, commonly known as Bangabandhu.
To conclude, as Hasina's three pillars of legitimacy crumble one after another, she is sliding toward second means of ensuring legitimacy that we have discussed at the beginning. Now, she is more likely to use ruthless violence against protesting people. According to international media, hundreds of people have been already killed during the ongoing Quota Movement. However, the Movement has also sent a clear message that Hasina's authoritarian takeover will not go unchallenged. Hence, an interesting is to wait and see if Bangladeshi people will find a way to wrest the country from this authoritarian slide to democratic reforms.
-Dinesh Sapkota
The article was written on 25 July 2024.
